The Silo Freis Farm Ops Dashboard
Freis' Call

Sell corn — hold soy.

  • CornSellscale out into strength, in clips
  • SoyHoldnothing to sell yet
Stored corn
0bu
sold down
Stored soy
0bu
fully sold
Cash on hand
$25k
~$30k due Jun
Corn Scale-out
Start moving the old crop — sell the first ~1/3 of the 9,115 bu still at Ritchie on any bounce. We're into the summer window where price seasonally fades, and you need the bin space for harvest.
Soybeans Wait
Nothing to sell — the Ritchie bean bin is empty. The only open soy is the 500 bu NPE, priced off Nov futures, so wait for a Nov rally to lock it rather than acting on today's cash.

* Behind schedule on the planned selling tranches — midyear takeover meant we couldn't implement them. They're still the indicator for when to sell against the plan.

Freis' Read

How he's reading the market this week — and what to do.

Selling strategy
Sell into the summer fade
The textbook seasonal top is behind us — from here, time works against the holder as remaining sellers compete into new-crop pressure. Scaling out of old corn in clips now captures the trend instead of betting on a weather spike.
Storage
Storage is a silent tax
At roughly 3¢/bu a month, every month you hold quietly eats into the price you'll get. Holding for a higher board price is really paying rent to gamble, and the drag compounds all the way to harvest.
Basis
Watch basis, not just the board
Ritchie corn is about 19¢ under the board. A futures rally that comes with a widening basis isn't your rally — judge sales on the cash bid you actually get, and favor days when basis firms alongside the board.

Why our calls lean toward selling

We took over the marketing midseason, so we're catching up on the tranches a steady plan would have sold earlier in the year. A farm that priced in disciplined pieces all along would sit more patient here — our calls tilt toward selling into strength because we're closing that gap, not because selling now is always right. As we get back on the plan, expect the calls to even out between holding and selling.

The gauges behind it

Green is a point in favor of pricing, amber a caution — signals the call weighs.

The scoreboard loads on the next data refresh.

The basis

What the local cash market is telling us — a signal, not the call.

Corn Discount

Corn's local cash bid is soft right now

The cash price for corn is running under the futures and gets softer into harvest — for now the strength is on the board, not the local market. Worth knowing if a cash sale comes up.

The numbers

Cash 17¢ under futures · you get +23¢ to deliver 3 mo later (149% of full carry)

Soybeans Premium

Soybeans' local cash premium is unusually strong right now

The elevator is paying a bonus for beans over the futures today, and that bonus fades toward December. It's a point in favor of the cash side if a sale comes up — but it doesn't set the plan on its own.

The numbers

Cash 19¢ over futures · you get +8¢ to deliver 3 mo later (30% of full carry)

Freis' Outlook

The year ahead — the trend, inputs, and the allocation call.

Rethink Farm is corn-heavy while soy runs the stronger year

Soybeans are the crop pressed against the top of their range with the better new-crop story. It's worth pricing the soy strength that exists now and pencilling a little more soy into next year's acreage mix.

Corn · the year

Up from about $4.00 to $4.45, three-quarters of the way up its range for the year. A steady grind, not a spike.

New-crop USDA pegs corn near $4.40 as usage outruns production — firmer than last year but still near break-even.

Soy · the year

Up more than $2.00 to $12.04, pressed against the top of the year's range. The stronger story of the two.

USDA sees soy at $11.40, the highest since 2023/24, on crush and renewable-diesel demand. China and weather decide if it holds.

Inputs, the backdrop & the moves

Inputs

Diesel is down about 10% on the month and fertilizer is flat, easing input pressure into next year — a small tailwind for margins on both crops.

The backdrop

Renewable-diesel policy and firm crush demand carry soybeans while corn leans on steady usage and tightening stocks. Weather through pollination and Chinese buying are the two levers for the year.

The moves

  • Price the 500 open soybean bushels into this strength rather than waiting.
  • Keep pricing planned corn tranches into rallies; stay disciplined near break-even.
  • Pencil a slightly heavier soy weighting into next year's acreage plan.

Live bids · Ritchie

Where bids sit now — vs. the seasonal pattern

Corn bid
$4.47
basis −18¢
Soy bid
$10.84
basis −9¢
Avail corn
9,115bu
on hand

Refreshes from the same bushel.json feed as the classic dashboard, on load and every 5 minutes.

Seasonal pattern

Loading price data…

Market wire

What's moving the market

Loading recent market news…

Rule of thumb

Tranche sizes by season

WindowMonthsTarget
Harvest deliveryOct–Nov15–20%
Winter recoveryDec–Jan15–20%
Pre-springFeb–Mar10–15%
Spring strength ★Apr–May25–30%
Summer weatherJun–Jul10–15%
Pre-harvest cleanupAug–Sep5–10%

The spring window is the best shot at the highest price — aim to have the most bushels to sell then.

Current position

CropStoredSoldStatus
Corn9,1153,500Behind
Soy03,217Done

Per the tranche guide we should have sold 30–40% of corn by now. Instead we're sitting on 9,115 bu in a fading July window — about $9.75/day storage burn.

Strategy · What-if model

If we bought protection — nothing would trigger today.

Both crops sit between modeled floor and ceiling. The collar costs nothing to keep in place. (Model only — no position open.)

Modeled bushels
35,000bu
corn 25k · soy 10k
Floor / ceiling · corn
$4.20/ $5.10
90¢ band · costless
Status today
Asleep
free to hold · in the model

Where price sits inside the collar

Corn Jul · floor $4.20 · ceiling $5.10

$5.10 ceiling $4.20 floor $4.47¾ Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Price stays inside the green band — protection sleeps. If it pokes through either edge, the model triggers.

If price moved at harvest…

ScenarioCorn P&LSoy P&L
−15%+$3,300+$1,200
−5%$0$0
flat$0$0
+5%$0$0
+15%−$2,800−$900

Pays out on a real downside. Caps a runaway upside. Otherwise sleeps.

Seasonal price heatmap

When to sell — seasonal price heatmap Warmer color = historically better time to sell  ·  Based on 10-year seasonal index Weak Below avg Avg Above avg Strong Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep MARKETING YEAR → 96 94 95 97 98 100 102 104 103 101 98 95 CORN Harvest low → winter recovery → spring peak (May) → summer fade → new-crop pressure ▲ Best window 95 93 94 96 97 99 101 104 106 105 102 98 SOY Harvest low → winter hold → spring rally → peak May–Jun → late-summer fade ▲ Best window YOU ARE HERE Tactical guide Corn: sell into spring strength (Apr–Jun). Soy: sell on weather rallies (May–Jul). Avoid harvest-delivery lows (Sep–Nov) unless cash flow requires it.

How to read this

Reading the seasonal price heatmap

The heatmap shows a 10-year average — how corn and soy prices have historically moved through the year. Each cell is a number from roughly 90 to 110 called a "seasonal index."

100 = the average price for the whole marketing year. If a month shows 105, that means prices have historically been about 5% higher than average that month — a good time to sell. If it shows 95, prices have tended to be 5% lower.

Reading the colors:

  • Red / orange → historically above-average prices (good selling window)
  • Yellow → near-average — neutral
  • Blue / gray → below-average — weak selling conditions

The pattern: Both crops tend to hit their low at harvest (Oct–Nov), recover through winter, peak in late spring (Apr–May for corn, May–Jun for soy), then fade through summer into new-crop harvest. The red cells are the best historical selling windows — aim to have the most bushels available then.

Seasonal patterns are tendencies, not guarantees. Use this alongside your cash-flow needs, basis, and the tranche plan on the main dashboard.

Cash runway · next 90 days

Sales, bills, running balance

DateEventBalance
Apr 30Start$25k
Jun 1+$12k bean sale (1,000 bu)$37k
Jun 15−$30k bills (tax · Ritchie · Lattering)$7k
Jul 1+$12k bean sale (1,000 bu)$19k
Jul 15−$8k chem$11k

Cash flow model from Apr 2026 — bean sales completed. Chart is historical reference only.

Storage clock · Ritchie

Corn @ Ritchie9,115 bu
Soy @ Ritchie0 bu
Storage tierHalo (free)
Est. mo. storage~$293

1-week halo, then prorated monthly. Storage charges accrue on stored corn unless we move it or apply the fall input-prepay credit.

Where else this could go

Cash bids vs Ritchie

ElevatorMilesCorn $Soy $
Ritchie Grain (baseline)5——
Mazon (FS Grain)10$4.4975$11.9525
CHS Morris (river)14$4.6775$11.9125
ADM Morris (river)14$4.6775$11.8925
CGB Dwight22$4.6775$12.0225

Net of freight at 0.6¢/bu/mi from 19076 W Peotone Rd. CGB Dwight currently prices best on both crops.

Yield · Margin · Benchmark · 2025

Corn yield
223bu/ac
+9 bu vs IL
Corn $/ac
$475
+$204 vs IL
Bean yield
72.8bu/ac
+6.8 bu vs IL

How we stack up against Illinois — USDA NASS · farmdoc / IL FBFM. 2025 bean $/ac is partial — rises as remaining bushels sell.