Strategy · What-if model · Apr 30, 2026

If we bought protection — nothing would trigger today.

Both crops sit between modeled floor and ceiling. The collar costs nothing to keep in place. (Model only — no position open. We'd have to call Ritchie or a broker to set one up.)

Modeled bushels
35,000
corn 25k · soy 10k
Floor / ceiling · corn
$4.20/ $5.10
90¢ band · costless
Status today
Asleep
free to hold · in the model
Where price sits inside the collar Corn Jul · floor $4.20 · ceiling $5.10
$5.10 ceiling $4.20 floor $4.47¾ Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Price stays inside the green band — protection sleeps. If it pokes through either edge, the model triggers.

Grain Marketing · Seasonal Price Heatmap · Jul 2, 2026

When to sell — seasonal price patterns for corn and soy

10-yr seasonal index
Weak sell Below avg Average Above avg Strong sell
When to sell — seasonal price heatmap Warmer color = historically better time to sell  ·  Based on 10-year seasonal index Weak Below avg Avg Above avg Strong Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep MARKETING YEAR → 96 94 95 97 98 100 102 104 103 101 98 95 CORN Harvest low → winter recovery → spring peak (May) → summer fade → new-crop pressure ▲ Best window 95 93 94 96 97 99 101 104 106 105 102 98 SOY Harvest low → winter hold → spring rally → peak May–Jun → late-summer fade ▲ Best window YOU ARE HERE Tactical guide Corn: sell into spring strength (Apr–Jun). Soy: sell on weather rallies (May–Jul). Avoid harvest-delivery lows (Sep–Nov) unless cash flow requires it.

Rule of thumb — tranche sizes by season

% OF TOTAL BUSHELS
Window Months Seasonal price Sell target Why
Harvest delivery Oct–Nov 🔵 Weak (94–96) 15–20% Cash flow — don't dump everything at the low
Winter recovery Dec–Jan 🔵 Recovering (95–97) 15–20% Basis improvement, post-harvest bounce
Pre-spring Feb–Mar 🟡 Near avg (98–100) 10–15% Light positioning, keep powder for spring
Spring strength ★ Apr–May 🔴 Peak (102–106) 25–30% Corn & soy seasonal peak — biggest tranche
Summer weather Jun–Jul 🟡 Fading (101–105) 10–15% Weather premium window — opportunistic
Pre-harvest cleanup Aug–Sep 🔵 Declining (95–102) 5–10% Empty bins for new crop — avoid forced sale

Adjust for your cash-flow needs, basis, and risk tolerance. The spring window is your best shot at the highest price — aim to have the most bushels to sell then.

Reading the heatmap

Each cell shows the seasonal price index for that month — the average price level relative to the 10-year mean (100 = baseline). A warmer cell means prices have historically been higher that month. A cooler cell means prices tend to be lower.

Corn hits its seasonal peak in May (index 104) on spring weather premium and ethanol demand, then fades through summer as new-crop pressure builds.
Soybeans peak later in May–June (index 104–106) on planting uncertainty and South American supply tightness, then decline into harvest.

* Seasonal patterns are tendencies, not guarantees. Use this as a timing guide alongside your cash-flow needs, basis, and the tranche plan on the home page.

Current position

CropStoredSoldTranche targetStatus
Corn 9,115 3,500 55% Behind
Soy 0 3,217 100% Done

Per the tranche guide: we should have sold 30–40% by now. Instead we're sitting on 9,115 bu of corn in a fading July window. ~$9.75/day storage burn.